Rocky Mountain Football League

Semi-Final Predictions

Four little teams are going out to play, two on the hill and the other two far away…when the clock strikes ZERO late Saturday night, only the two top teams will be left to fight…

Aaaahhhhh….here we are…the Semifinals…arguably my favorite weekend as a fan as there are four GREAT teams fighting for a chance to compete in that final dance.  This year is especially sweet as I feel that all the teams remaining have a LEGITIMATE shot and winning it all…anything really can happen Saturday and so we as a league are fortunate to experience the thrill of the ride…

Saturday Night presents us with a great card of two big-time games being played.  One will be in St. Geezy were the weather forecast  is predicting a “crisp” 106 degrees while the other will be in SLC (downright COLD at 97 degrees…)  The four team remaining are unequivocally the top 4 in the RMFL, and all four teams have legitimate playoff (and championship) experience.  Another benefit with these matchups is that all both games already happened in week 3 and I was able to attend them both.  I saw first hand the Revolution squander a strong first half performance to the Rebels and lose late, I was also present for the Stealth/Shock battle that was A LOT closer than the 35-12 final score indicated.  Having witnessed those two games I feel as though I have a decent idea of how these two teams matchup.  I can’t wait to get my grub on at Jordan High School as I watch what is sure to be a great game all the while checking for updates on the Rev-Rebels matchup (Sarge, you better text me quarterly updates along with your Twitter posts…)  The finality of what lies before me as a Follower is really hitting my hard…as I KNOW that I only have 3 games left to predict before I walk away for good, leaving my pen and paper at midfield at the Championship game…but enough about me…let’s get on to the real entertainment…

Revolution @ Rebels

Although they’re under  new ownership, it is easily argued that this is Dixie’s 4^th year in the RMFL…it also happens to be the Revolution’s 4^th year in existence…and for the 4^th year in a row, these two teams will meet in the playoffs (2 of the 3 previous matchups have come in the semi-finals as well)…with the exception of last year’s championship meeting/beatdown, all the semifinal games have been extremely close and entertaining.  Even with their ups and downs this season, the Revolution remain one of the most confident teams in the RMFL, while the Rebels have beaten all 3 of the remaining teams already this season and always get a boost when they play the gracious host…Since Wasatch’s week 7 loss to the Shock, they’ve rolled off 3 consecutive, and very convincing, wins against 3 other playoff teams and seem to have not only improved on offense, but their defense has appeared to wake up from their mid-season slumber.  Dixie is the #1 seed for a reason, and even with being hampered by injuries this season they have simply found a way to win when it matters most.  Rumor has it that while Fields may not be 100%, he has enjoyed the past 3 weeks of rest and will be ready to lead his team on Saturday night.  This little fact itself may provide the best bit of evidence for this prognosticator as when these two teams played early this season, it was a true tale of two halves.  In the first half, Diarra sat patiently on the sidelines and watched as his Rebel teammates fell behind to Chuckypita’s Revolution.  In the first half of their initial matchup, the Revolution were able to move the ball at will through the air (short passes) and had the Rebels on the ropes.  The Rebels weren’t able to really get anything going offensively because the Rev’s defense was loading the box and daring Martinez to beat them with his arm…which he never did…but in the 2^nd half, when Fields lined up behind center, there was a complete shift in not only the playcalling, but in the attitude and demeanor on the field.  The Rev started to look suspect on defense as they let Tahi run wild on them (but come on now, he is a TRUE NFL fullback), but more so they let Fields find the open receiver and keep moving the chains.  Even when the Revolution reclaimed the lead late in the game, it was that same Suspect-Revolution defense that couldn’t get a stop when it mattered most as the Rebels marched down the field for the final game winning score.  Wasatch is reportedly traveling well and that bodes well for their upset push…the issues I see for the Revolution are three fold…first, they have no real RB…Havei is decent and Lang tries hard but neither is a formidable every down back that the Rebels will have to respect, this fact will cause Drage to draw up more pass plays for Chuckypita.  The pass has always been the Revolution’s strength and so this shouldn’t be a major issue…EXCEPT that Charles-in-Charge can get rattled from a few big Rebel plays/stops and then he’ll begin to force the ball to certain players when the play is not there. The second issue is that with Golden Whetman M.I.A. for the Revolution their kicking game is basically non-existent.  A game of this magnitude against two strong teams often comes down to a missed PAT or FG attempt.  If the Rev get into the redzone but are held and can’t go for a FG due to not having a kicker, this is a HUGE win for the Rebels.  Dixie of course has the All-Follower First Team kicker in Steve Pulver.  Third issue, and the biggest, is the fact that the Rev’s defense hasn’t really shut down ANY decent offenses this season.  How are they going to keep the Rebels from not only scoring, but from running down the clock and taking away snaps from Wasatch’ offense??? If I were the Revolution I’d implement some backside/short screens to the RBs coming out of the back field, and work the flats with Mr. Bigplay.  Use Peterson over the middle on the seam and curl routes to keep the safeties at bay and then try and hit Etuati on a streak down the sideline when the opportunity presents itself.  The Rebels don’t want to get into a shoot-out with the Revolution, especially if Fields is not at 100% and so I expect them to play game management.  Heavy doses of the run mixed up with a little play action to expose the Revolution’s secondary.  As with any game in St. George, if this game is close going into the 4^th quarter there is NO WAY the visiting team will escape with a win…the Revolution need to jump out early and keep punching to have a chance.  I have told many that I would not be at all shocked to find out late Saturday night that the Revolution channeled their inner Paul Revere and made a memorable run through St. George in pursuit of another championship bid…but I just think this Dixie team is too disciplined, too strong, and too prepared to let any upset bid happen.  Dixie wins a close one and start to prepare for a great show down south next week…Rebels 27 Revolution 20

Stealth @ Shock

This game was meant to happen…it’s a classic battle between two COMPLETELY different teams.  One team has been for the most part together for the long run while the other has been pieced together over the past 4 years…A little interesting fact to think about Saturday night…up until about mid-february, the strength of the Stealth defense were COMMITTED to play WITH the Shock for 2012…I won’t go into whether the Shock would be better/worse had those players actually shown up, but I will say that this game would NOT be happening had they kept their word…because of this, the Shock want to show the Stealth defenders that they made a mistake while the Stealth want to show the Shock that they made the right choice in pursuing a championship.  These two teams played in Week 3, and while the final score was 35-12 for the Shock, the game was MUCH closer…The Stealth fumbled the opening kickoff and the Shock recovered the ball and ran it into the endzone for a quick 7-0 lead.  The Stealth quickly regained their footing and drove the ball 70 yards for a touchdown to bring the game to a tie 7-7.   The Stealth were able to move the ball during the game but seemed to make costly mistakes.  4 turnovers (2 ints, 2 fumbles), well over 120 penalty yards, and they even had their punt blocked by one of their own guys in the endzone that the Shock recovered for another one of their TDs.  Take those miscues away and it could’ve very easily been a different ball game.  While it’s not an excuse, you have to at least acknowledge that it was the Stealth’s second game as a team, and they were facing off versus a squad that has played together for 4+ years…fact is that with 7 more games under their belt, this Stealth squad is NOT the same team the Shock faced back in week 3, and they’re ready to show it on Saturday night.  With names like Ragin, Harward, Hector, Walker, Hermansen, Smith, Matagi, Devoe, and Ita…along with MANY others…there’s a reason why this defense was the #1 rated one all season, and now that it’s the playoffs, this defense knows that they have to carry the team.  The Shock’s offense is ranked #1 and so it should be a great matchup, however the old saying always seems to ring true, “Great Offense sells tickets, but great Defense wins championships…” Just like the Rev/Rebels game above, let’s not forget the fact that in close games often it’s the Kicker who can decide the outcome.  With the Stealth no having a real kicker, a missed PAT could really hurt them since the Shock’s cancerous Kicker has been solid on PATs all season.  I see this game going one of two ways…if the Shock come out fast and crisp, scoring a couple early touchdowns, they win going away as the Stealth’s offense isn’t built for big comebacks…BUT…if the Shock come out flat, or make a mistake or two (turnover, costly penalty, etc.), I see this game turning into the Stealth’s favor…With the Shock claiming to be packing it in after this season, anything but a championship will haunt them forever and so if the game is close in the 4^th quarter, the weight of that pressure could be too much for them to bare…this game will be great, and I could see either team coming out on top…but I still believe this Shock team has something special and with Jordan Kjar leading the offense they will simply find a way to survive another week…Shock 20 Stealth 18

Wow…there you have it…two great games that will NOT disappoint anyone who ventures into the furnace to watch.  I will be at Jordan High School enjoying the BEST CONCESSIONS in the league and invite all those who aren’t playing this week (AAA and AA) to come and join me.  I’ll be the one with a small cooler to keep my Pepsi on ice and gorging myself on nachos…I need to fill up since after Saturday I’ll have but one more RMFL game to attend/predict…it really is coming to an end for this humble Follower…

Enjoy…