Here is my AA playoff outlook as we go into a slow week with only a few games this week and only 3 weeks left in the season.Separated by division and in order of record.
Montana Division:
Bitterroot Blaze (6-0): Have locked up a playoff spot and play Missoula on Friday night for the division championship.It’s a home game and the Blaze always have a good crowd (not to mention a good after party) in Darby so the Phoenix need to bring it.This team I see taking the #1 spot in Montana even in a loss as the tie breaker will go to them with points allowed being least in the league.I see this team making it deep into the playoffs and possibly hosting the championship game in Darby.
Missoula Phoenix (4-1): Have a big game Friday night.With a win, they will hold the second playoff spot at least and if the win is big enough by margin, it could launch them into the #1 spot.All they need is one more W this season and they clinch the#2 spot with the head to head tie breaker against the bullets.I see them taking the #2 spot in the Montana Division and probably having an early exit in the playoffs due to travel.
Billings Bullets (3-3): this team was well to do staying AA this year and is an outside contender for the #2 playoff spot.They would need to win out against the Blaze and the Snow Devils and hope for big games from the Bearcats and Snow Devils against the Phoenix.All in all, I don’t see it happening but have a great chance at finishing 4-4 (or even 5-3) which is a pretty decent first year in this league.
Bearcats (0-5) and Snow Devils (1-5) are mathematically out of the playoffs.
Utah Division (starts to get interesting):
Uintah Basin Oilers (5-1): Congrats to them coming out of nowhere and moving up from being the team that everyone beat.With a big win over the Stampede a couple of weeks ago, they sit alone on top of the Utah Division with their own future in their hands.With a win on June 2 against the Cobras (and a Cobra win this Saturday), they sit pretty comfortable for the playoffs.
Utah Cobras (4-1): Two huge games in a row for these guys.With the Stampede this Saturday and the Oilers the following week, we should know who’s going by June 2nd in this division.If they can pull of the W this week against the Stampede, they will have their own future in hand and the game against the Oilers on June 2nd should be for seeding purposes.If they lose this Saturday…
Logan Stampede (4-2): This team needs a W this Saturday.By winning, they throw themselves back into the playoff picture and they become huge fans of the Oilers the following week.A loss this weekend takes all control of their post season out of their hands and puts it into the hands of the rest of the division.
With a Stampede win this week and Cobra win next week, this playoff picture becomes crazy with tie breakers coming down to points allowed which could be any one of them at this point.The Warriors (0-6) and Vipers (1-4) are out of the playoff picture at this point, but still have a huge impact on how this division will be represented in the post season.My prediction: #1 seed goes to the Oilers and #2 seed will be the Cobras.I foresee the Oilers making it to the second round but the Cobras (or Stampede) stumbling in the first round of playoffs.
Idaho Division (another mess):
Idaho Matadors (6-0): they have clinched a playoff berth even if they lose the rest of their games.They have also clinched no worse than the #2 spot as they hold the head to head tie breaker with the Anarchy (and looking at the Generals, they may hold the points scored against tie breaker when the season is over).They have a huge game the last week against the Generals. The Generals will be looking for revenge for a very emotional first meeting and a possible playoff visit on the line.They also only need one more win to hold the #1 seed.
Arco Anarchy (4-2): Two huge games left as they will battle for the #2 spot in the picture next week and then battle another possible playoff team the following week.Overall, I don’t see them winning both of these games as they already did not travel well to western Idaho once this season and dropped a game to a lesser opponent as well as they only beat the mustangs by a touchdown in a close to home game.This team needs to show up and do business to finish the season and could end up the #2 seed hosting a first round playoff game.
Boise Generals (4-2):Here is a team that could end up either 6-2 and at the number #1 seed or 4-4 and have an early end to the season.They have two huge games to end the season against the Anarchy and Matadors.They benefit from having the Anarchy travel to them but they also lost to a traveling Vikings team.I think no matter what, the game to end the season when they travel to the Matadors will have some playoff and seeding implications.
Idaho Mustangs (3-3): This is a team playing for their lives.The only way they guarantee a post season is by winning the remainder of their games. With the Sabercats playing at Holt arena and then traveling to Arco, there is a chance this could happen.I don’t see them knocking off the Anarchy at home though.The Mustangs need to be huge fans of both the Anarchy and Matadors to hand the Generals 2 losses as they do not want to end up in a tie with them, as they may end up enjoying the summer before some other teams.
Upper Valley Vikings (3-3): Another team playing for their lives but with a little easier road.They have a game against the Guardians and then against the Diggers to finish the year.The last game could be a potential playoff game for both teams and the final score of their first meeting was 16-9 in favor of the Vikings.All in all, this team could very well end up in a 3 way tie for 2nd place with the Anarchy and Generals, in which they would take the 3rd seed knocking the Generals down to the 4th.
Mini-Cassia Diggers (2-4): Not mathematically out of the playoff run, but with games left against the Matadors and the Vikings with the need to win out, not to mention needing 2 of the Anarchy, Mustangs or Vikings to lose the rest of the way, I just don’t see them making it in.I will say they have the outside chance while also having the chance to ruin someone’s season which makes them very dangerous the rest of the season.This team never gives up and likes to spoil, so do not take them lightly.
Snake River Sabercats (2-4): they have an outside chance, but like the Diggers, it is not in their control.They would first have to win out against the Mustangs and Guardians to finish 4-4.They would then need the Diggers to beat the Vikings and lose to the Matadors (as the Diggers hold the tie breaker) and also need the anarchy to beat the Mustangs.I just don’t see this happening, not all of it at least so the Sabercats should be watching the playoffs instead of playing in them (which they will only watch if it comes to Western Idaho, we all know how much they hate traveling).
The Guardians (0-6) are out of the playoffs, but like the vipers and warriors, can definitely cause some havoc through the remaining games.My prediction: #1) Matadors #2) Anarchy #3) Generals #4)Mustangs/Vikings.
Well, what are your thoughts?
-- Edited by Brace on Tuesday 22nd of May 2012 07:05:53 AM
-- Edited by Brace on Tuesday 22nd of May 2012 07:08:04 AM
An overall #1 seed is determined by a series of tie-breakers which will quickly turn into 1)record and 2)points allowed, because none of the divisions played each other. We determined we would cross bracket the first round so Utah & Montana teams wouldn’t meet.
#1 MT hosts #4 ID (MT#1 being the overall #1 seed)
#2 ID hosts #2 UT
#1 UT hosts #3 ID
#1 ID hosts #2 MT (ID#1 being the overall #2 seed)
If the season were to end today the seeds would be:
1 Blaze
2 Matadors
3 Oilers
4 Phoenix
5 Cobras
6 Anarchy
7 Generals
8 Mustangs
and Match ups would be:
8 Mustangs @ 1 Blaze
5 Cobras @ 6 Anarchy
7 Generals @ 3 Oilers
4 Phoenix @ 2 Matadors
I think...
-- Edited by Jess Peterson on Tuesday 22nd of May 2012 11:28:17 AM
I got that info from Brad - so we will pass it onto him......
That was before Brace brought up the constitution
Here is what I found on the 2012 constitution amended in January 2012.
9. Playoff seeding and division champions will be determined by overall record. a. Teams will be seeded according to best overall record (won‐loss percentage). b. In the event of a tie, the first tiebreaker used will be head to head competition. If the tie is 3‐way or more, common record against the teams that are tied will be used to determine the highest seed, and then head to head competition. c. If there is still a tie, the second tie‐breaker (if applicable) will be the team that has the highest cumulative record of opponents played during the season, forming a "strength of schedule" determination. The team who's opponents yielded the highest winning percentage wins the tie‐breaker. d. The third tiebreaker will be fewest points allowed during the regular season games, with the team allowing the fewest points getting the higher seed. e. If there is still a tie, a coin toss will be used. f. Teams which are seeded highest will be awarded home field advantage. Divisional rankings are not a seeding tie‐breaker. g. The championship game will be played at the highest seed's home field or at a neutral site as determined by the RMFL's Executive Board. In the event the RMFL does not designate and pay for a neutral site location before the start of the first regular season game, the championship game shall be played at the home field of the highest remaining seed. The payment for the officials, field, scoreboard operator, chain crew for these games will be split equally by all teams and the cost will be included in the team fees at the beginning of the season. If the highest seed for some reason cannot host the championship, the lower seed will gain the right h. Out of state/interleague and non‐conference/preseason games may be counted towards overall record but will not be counted for purposes of determining playoff seeding between the RMFL's league teams
Jesus Jara
Youre dead on with the Utah division. the Oilers win and they clinch #1 seed. Logan would have to win vs the Cobras by 15 points to break the tie of Points allowed for the #2 spot. Cobras win and theyre in the #1 spot. The Oilers have a 25 point advantage on the Stampede in the PA column for the #2 spot. Summation: there will be some good football down to the wire in the Utah division.
In the Idaho division we play everyone once and one team twice, therefor giving us all a different strength. I went totally off of the constitution that is on this site which states it is from 2012. The strength should be the same for Utah and Montana though my logic states that going straight to points allowed doesnt make sense when there is a definite difference in schedules between the three divisions. Just my 2 cents from Idaho where I feel we have a tougher division, but I'm sure you all believe yours is tougher which makes sense as we didnt play across divisions this year and our only frame of reference is our own division.
And Jaye, why you got to yell? Lol just messin
-- Edited by Brace on Tuesday 22nd of May 2012 04:18:57 PM
In all honesty I don't think there is an "easy" game in the first round of the playoffs. Yeah teams like the Blaze and Matadors would be heavily favored and travel will help but if every team was to take their main team and key players I don't think there should be any blowouts.
I didnt say there would be any blowouts. or any easy games. Playoff football is a whole new season. Teams you played in the season seem to be different when it comes time to play them in the playoffs. :)
2 from Utah and Montana and 4 from Idaho. Im not sure about the seeding because its cross divisional and i cant find it anywhere on the sight (full disclosure, i didnt look that hard). I am pretty sure that the Idaho #1 seed play the Idaho #4 seed.
I will post something official later in the week (I'm in Montana at the moment), but we agreed to cross-seed the first round so that Montana and Utah teams didn't play each other--so Idaho #1 & #2 will host the #2 seeds from MT and UT; and Idaho #3 & #4 will travel to Montana & Utah #1 seeds.
Jess, according to the constitution, the #2 tie breaker is strength of schedule which would make Idaho the overall #1 seed and Montana the overall #2 seed. At least thats what I see and I could definitely be wrong.
Im curious to see how this bracket is figured out. It seems all sorts of jacked up since it is a 2-2-4 format. I am also excited to see what the rest of this season brings as well as what the playoffs bring us.
if i remember correctly, it went straight from OVERALL RECORD to POINTS ALLOWED as the tie-break. if therew as still a tie then it went straight to the coin toss. we decided that due to the inner-division games there can be no STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE in the equation. in that scenario, the HEAD TO HEAD and SAME OPPONENTS tie-breaks would thrown out the. so, if 4 teams are 7-1, (regardless of division) then the teams would all be rated in order of POINTS ALLOWED!
I thought we voted to have the tie breaker go from record to points allowed also. We debated on overall point differential, but it was felt that teams would then purposely run up the score, so that was shot down. I think part of the issue is we have an overall constitution, but it doesnt specify whether that deals with AA or AAA playoffs. We talked about the tie breaker when we split off and I don't think it was put into the constitution. Does anyone have the minutes from the AA portion of the meeting?
Brace you lost all "hardest division" arguments when we allowed 4 Idaho teams in the playoffs. :) after all it's very possible that two .500 teams will make the playoffs from Idaho where three teams in the Utah division could finish 6-2 and one out of the playoffs.
When the meeting split it was discussed about tie breakers and the way the alignment worked out, Montana division,Idaho division and Utah division, which are unevenly teamed and for travel purposes we had decided that strength of schedule was moot or did not apply. The second tie breaker is supposed to be Points allowed. It should be in the league AA minutes..
Thats In the RMFL Constitution, but there are different Scenario's for the AA..If not then there is no reason to split the league meeting up into AA/AAA sections.. There is no Strength of Schedule when all you do is play within yor own division...
I believe it gets reseeded every round. This where I can see Brace's issue with points allowed because if the Generals beat the Matadors and the Oilers win out And allow less then 33 points, we would host a secOnd round game by the PA rule.
So what is it? Is the constitution on the website wrong or right? Just trying to clear it up. I'm not arguing about who has the tougher conference, or that I am right. I just wrote an article based on the information on hand. Geeze!! I figured it would be a fun topic and let people know where they stand. Crazy kids! Lol
Ha ha just playing Devils advocate. I miss a game with the Idaho division but I don't miss the trip. Never been or played a Montana team. Hopefully this year I get to!
I've got the notes in my office in SLC, which is why I said I would post something more official at the end of the week (I'm in Montana at the moment). I think we included strength of schedule among common opponents, but knew that wouldn't come into play because of the lack of inter-division games, which is why it would drop quickly to points allowed.
As far as the seeding goes, I do know we chose to cross-bracket the first round so no MT & UT teams would play each other. We will seed the teams 1-8 based on the tie-breakers, but ID teams will play MT & UT teams in the first round and we DON'T re-seed.
So, IF (and I'll find out for sure) Bitterroot was the overall #1 seed because of points allowed, they would host the #4 Idaho seed in round 1 and the Oilers (if they are the #1 UT seed) would host the #3 Idaho seed. The Matadors (if they are the #1 Idaho seed) would host the lower of the #2 UT or #2 MT, and the #2 Idaho seed would host the other. The bracket doesn't change for round 2, but the higher ranking seed will always host based on the initial 1-8 seeding.
I can't say much about the number of teams from each division going to playoffs, with isolated overall records getting the respective teams in there. It happened 2 years ago, right before the Utah Toilet Bowl (Vipers @ the old Cobras team). Velk and some other members from up north were voicing displeasure and I basically made a "deal with it" comment. Here we are, and I'm on a team (Stampede) where things are gonna get dicey and there's a chance that the "lesser" of the two Utah teams gunning for the #2 Utah spot will miss a playoff spot to an Idaho team with a worse overall record... we might be getting to live what Montana was living 2 years ago. Stupid Karma.
Stampede @ Cobras is gonna be a barn burner...
__________________
Darrell Baranowski
Utah Shock #51
Player... just a player. Hallelujah, I'M ONLY A PLAYER!!
I know this probably becomes less important with Bitterroot's loss on Friday night, but I did check my notes over the weekend and AA agreed to "Strength of Schedule of Common Opponents" which with the lack of division play will lead directly to "Points Allowed".
We agreed on NFL-style bracketing, so even though the #2 MT team may have a better record than the #2 Idaho team (of 4), they would still travel to the higher seed (like a wildcard with a better record traveling to a Division Champ). So...roughly, here's what it would look like:
ID #1 will host UT #2 (assuming MT #2 has an equal or better record and fewer points allowed than UT #2 which I think is likely) ID #2 will host MT #2 (assuming MT #2 has an equal or better record and fewer points allowed than UT #2 which I think is likely) UT #1 will host ID #3 (assuming MT #1 has an equal or better record and given up fewer points than UT #1) MT #1 will host ID #4 (assuming MT #1 has an equal or better record and given up fewer points than UT #1)
CURRENTLY (and this could change based not only on wins & losses over the next two weeks, but the amount of points given up)--Matadors would be the #1 overall because of record, Blaze would be the #2 overall because of fewer points allowed than the Oilers, Oilers would be #3 overall, and the winner of Anarchy/Generals would be the #4 overall.
Does this make sense?
For those not at the meeting, we created this playoff seeding because 1) we wanted to minimize travel during the regular season and though this was the fairest format given the division break-downs for each state, and 2) we wanted to minimize travel (and the potential for playoff game blow outs) in the first round of the playoffs (i.e. Utah vs. MT).
Coin flip is after the points allowed right? I only ask because best case scenario if the Bullets score 8 this weekend and the Oilers shut out the next two games then points allowed would be tied. Not saying its going to happen just saying what if?
Best-best case scenario is the Blaze allow 40 and the Matadors lose to the Generals, Oilers win out and the Oilers are #1 overall right?
You forgot best-best-best case scenario that all of those things in your best-best case scenario happen except that the Oilers lose a shoot-out to the Cobras and the Stampede are the #1 seed from UT :).
Haha what if the Cobras and Oilers have already struck a deal to just run the ball every play and wait till the play clock is at one to snap everytime!
I also just noticed a best-best-best-best case for Missoula is if they win out allowing minimal points and the Bullets pull the upset over the Blaze and the Oilers and Dors lose by shootouts, they would sneak into the #1 spot. Nothing is solidified just yet so a great two weeks of football left.
The best case best case scenario is that the Generals and the matadores make it to the championship and the Generals get a fat old check for being the traveling team.... haha I still can't believe that we are paying a team to go to the championship!!!
That was before Brace brought up the constitution
Here is what I found on the 2012 constitution amended in January 2012.
9. Playoff seeding and division champions will be determined by overall record. a. Teams will be seeded according to best overall record (won‐loss percentage). b. In the event of a tie, the first tiebreaker used will be head to head competition. If the tie is 3‐way or more, common record against the teams that are tied will be used to determine the highest seed, and then head to head competition. c. If there is still a tie, the second tie‐breaker (if applicable) will be the team that has the highest cumulative record of opponents played during the season, forming a "strength of schedule" determination. The team who's opponents yielded the highest winning percentage wins the tie‐breaker. d. The third tiebreaker will be fewest points allowed during the regular season games, with the team allowing the fewest points getting the higher seed. e. If there is still a tie, a coin toss will be used. f. Teams which are seeded highest will be awarded home field advantage. Divisional rankings are not a seeding tie‐breaker. g. The championship game will be played at the highest seed's home field or at a neutral site as determined by the RMFL's Executive Board. In the event the RMFL does not designate and pay for a neutral site location before the start of the first regular season game, the championship game shall be played at the home field of the highest remaining seed. The payment for the officials, field, scoreboard operator, chain crew for these games will be split equally by all teams and the cost will be included in the team fees at the beginning of the season. If the highest seed for some reason cannot host the championship, the lower seed will gain the right h. Out of state/interleague and non‐conference/preseason games may be counted towards overall record but will not be counted for purposes of determining playoff seeding between the RMFL's league teams
Jesus Jara
