Since it will be a relatively quiet weekend in the RMFL over Memorial Day, I thought it might be a good time to examine some of the potential playoff scenarios that are starting to take shape. In the league meeting, we agreed to follow the same AA playoff format as last year which is: 4 teams from Idaho, 2 teams from Montana, and 2 teams from Utah seeded 1-8 but with Idaho receiving 2 top seeds and Montana and Utah each receiving 1 and avoiding any Utah vs. Montana match ups in the first round. So, with 3 weeks to go in the season, here is how the playoff race is shaping up:
Idaho:
Generals: Seem to have a commanding grip on not only the #1 seed in Idaho, but overall. However, we won't know for sure until the last week of the season when they meet the Matadors. They would likely have home field throughout and would play the bottom ranked seed out of Utah or Montana in the first round.
Matadors, Bulldawgs, & Anarchy: Seem most likely to complete the Idaho spots. Although the Matadors have to beat the Mustangs next week or they could lose their spot in the post season.
Mustangs: Still alive if they can beat the Matadors and Vikings and the Matadors also lose to the Generals.
Montana:
Bullets & Gladiators: Seem to be in control of the division. Having split their two contests, whoever has the lowest total points against will have the coveted top seed and first round home game, while the loser will have to travel to Idaho in the first round.
Phoenix: With games remaining against the Bullets & Gladiators, the Phoenix are still very much alive in the Montana playoff race. If they were to win out, it would be a 3 way tie at 6-2, and unfortunately whichever team has the most points allowed would be left at home--not only does defense win championships, it may be the ticket to the playoffs.
Utah:
Cobras & Sting: Much like Montana, these two teams seem to have control of the Division. Assuming (and that's always dangerous) the Sting can take care of business vs. the Vipers and the Cobras beat Elko, this is shaping up to be a great regular season finale with a first round home playoff game on the line.
Oilers: They are the biggest Viper fans in the league this weekend--the Oiler's only chance at making the playoffs is for the Sting to slip up vs the Vipers and lose to the Cobras and hope the Oilers win the "points allowed" tiebreak (since they would have the same records and split games during the regular season).
So, some teams are already in, some are already out, and a few are on the bubble. While a lot may change over the next few weeks, here is my best guess at how things MIGHT shape up (and yes, I'm biased when I pick the Sting to beat the Cobras the final week--obviously that game could go either way. I also picked the Gladiators over the Bullets in the tiebreak just because they've given up 2 more points but the Bullets have one more game still to play--that also could go either way).
1. Generals (8-0) vs. 8. Cobras (6-2) in Boise
4. Anarchy (6-2) vs. 5. Bullets (7-1) in Arco
3. Gladiators (7-1) vs. 6. Matadors (6-2) in Great Falls
2. Sting (7-1) vs. 7. Bulldawgs (6-2) in Brigham City
I have the Anarchy seeded ahead of the Matadors, because I think they will both end up at 6-2 (along with the Bulldawgs) but will have fewer points allowed (unless the Matadors can slow the Generals offense down which seems to be impossible). Under this scenario, the Anarchy would host a team with a better record than them for the 2nd year in a row as the second top seed in Idaho (but #4 overall). We had originally formatted the playoffs this way to minimize travel in the first round, but if Billings and one of the Boise teams end up playing, that would still be quite a trek.
We also agreed that we would not re-seed after the first round, so the bracket would remain in tact througout. So, the winner of the Generals vs. Cobras would play the winner of Anarchy vs. Bullets, etc. Again, every single one of these seeding positions could and many likely will change over the next few weeks.
Good luck to all the teams that are playing this weekend and to everyone else, have a safe weekend.
