It seems to me it is harder to quantify defensive players for the MVP. I came up with a method I think is pretty good to determine the value of each player. I assign points for each statistical category.
1 point for Tackles, pass deflections, sack (sack is only 1 point because 2 points is already assigned for TFL).
2 points for Tackles for Loss (TFL), Forced Fumbles, Fumble recovery, blocked FG/Punt
3 points for Interception, Safety, Return for TD.
Using this method, this is how the players stack up. (I used the stats as posted Tuesday, June10 at 3PM. I don't know if all teams stats are updated)
1. Andrew Robinson - Stealth 77.5 pts
2. Levine Tupe - Rev 71 pts
3. Mike Messinger - Sting 65 pts
4. Jacob Bogner - Bulldawgs 60 pts
5. Quentin Bates - Generals 59 pts
6. Brandon Thompson - Rebels 56 pts
7. Cody Berry - Stealth 53.5 pts
8. Mike Mapu - Generals 48 pts
9. Jamar Galbreath - Blaze 51.5 pts
10. Lonnie Edwards - Bulldawgs 45 pts
Point weighting may be off, I don't know if this is the best way to decide MVP or not but at least it helps quantify what people did.
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My edit changed the points for a Sack from 3 points to 1 point, since I don't think a sack should get 2 points for a TFL and 3 more for it being on the QB. It basically gave 5 points for a sack.
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-- Edited by Footballr on Tuesday 10th of June 2014 05:20:37 PM
-- Edited by Footballr on Tuesday 10th of June 2014 10:05:22 PM
I think the scale is slightly off. Tackles are easy to come by and worthy of a whole point but there is no separation between a simple INT and one returned for a TD? I don't come with complaints without also bringing solutions. I propose a similar point system but with these variants:
.5 TACKLE/PASS DEF
1.0 TFL/SACK
2.0 INT/FORCE FUMBLE/FUMBLE REC/BLK KICK/SAFETY
3.0 INT/BLK KICK/FUMBLE REC RETURN FOR TD
This too is subject to improvement and suggestions but I feel it's more fair than the previous formula.
-- Edited by random guy on Wednesday 11th of June 2014 12:56:20 AM
I think an interception and fumble recovery or any change of possession should be 2.5. You have to make a defensive touchdown higher than everything else because its the hardest to do. Gettting a pick should not hold the same weight as a pick 6 and falling on a fumble should be less than a scoop and score. I think a blocked kick and a safety should also be here. I think the stats with the least numbers should get the most points because they are harder to accomplish. Just my two cents. Also a pass deflction should hold more weight than a tackle…. Maybe a 1?
Reasoning for my point structure, as if anyone really cares.
I tried to break each statistical category into it smallest component.
Points are cumulative. Example: Sack has a total worth of 3 pts - 2 pts for TFL, 1 pt for sack.
1 point items - basic
Tackle - most important and basic part of playing defense which is the reason I think it should be worth a full point.
Pass deflection - basically the same as a tackle - it stops a pass play the same way a tackle stops a run.
Sack - gets addition point for stopping the quarterback from completing a bigger play - remember points are cumulative - see example above.
2 point items - change possession
Tackle for loss (TFL) - This could be changed to 1 point since it also would be cumulative (1 pt for tackle + 1 pt for loss = 2) I'm not sure if a player that gets a TFL is also attributed tackle.
Forced fumble/Fumble recovery/Blocked kick or punt - if a player forces a fumble and recovered it, it would be worth 4 pts.
3 point items
Interception - it is kind of like forcing a fumble and recovering it plus it changes possession.
Safety - difficult to get, team gets 2 points and possession
Return for TD - team gets 6 points
I think by making the items cumulative it takes care of the concerns of Gorilla20. Since a pick 6 would get you 3 pts for the Interception + 3 more for the Return for TD, total of 6 pts. This was already part of my original scoring, but it wasn't called out.
Although the points system quantifies a player it doesn't take into account the intangibles. Are a players stats lower because he is always double-teamed, does the offense run/pass away from him. Does he play on a good or bad team. An MVP won't necessarily have the best stats, he should should still be in the top 10 or so statistically. Just something to think about.
Not to offend anyone, but I don't think you should consider anyone from a team that is out of contention. Just my 2 cents but Robinson, Messinger and Tupe (from this list) and I'm sure there are many others that should be considered. (No one from the Rebels on this list?) I just think the best player on a bad team just means they should get a lot of stats. Making tackles 8 yards downfield isn't much to write home about. If a guy is making 12 tackles a game at safety, their D probably isn't very good. If the SOS of teams is very low, they are making plays against bad teams. Needs to be considered too. Also, on D it is hard to quantify things but what about the impact of someone that affects the game while not making as many plays. For instance, a Dion Sanders that made an impact by forcing teams to only throw to one side of the field. Not that there are any Sanders in the league but if teams throw/run away from players there aren't numbers for that. Just some food for thought.
Good point. I think an SOS factor should be in play.
Also you brought up a "safety making down field tackles." There's a lot of players who have tackles on special teams too. Which shouldn't necessarily be counted against them, but using that as part of their tackle stat can be misleading as well.
Here's the guys I put up SOS:
Robinson- Stealth 11th out of 16
Ripley- Mudducks 6th out of 16
Mapu- Generals 7th out of 16
Bates- Generals 7th out of 16
Messinger- Sting 13th out of 16
Tupe- Rev 3rd out of 16
Anyone have any ideas how to weigh that in?
The owners/GMs will also have to put in the "that guy wooped us" factor too. Like you said Coach, there are some guys who made things difficult so while the stats didn't necessarily reflect their performance, the players/team/coaches know what guys were awesome--like a corner who doesn't get thrown at (Deion Sanders) or even a great player who played for a terrible team but still caused problems (Jared Allen).
-- Edited by Footballfan5 on Friday 13th of June 2014 05:52:04 PM
